At decision gates
Reproducible Risk Analysis: a P50 and P90 per facility, recorded so the run can be repeated.
For FID, funding, refinancing and recovery decisions, and for lenders’ technical advisers and insurers.
What is included
The range, its drivers, and how it was produced.
- I run the risk workshop, set three-point ranges and run Monte Carlo in industry-standard software, giving P50 and P90 per key facility and the main drivers
- Each facility’s driving path on the input file, calculated by my engine, which is the network the simulation varies
- I record a reproducibility sheet: the seed (where the software allows one), iterations, software version, and the hashes of the sealed input file and risk register
The reproducibility sheet
What is recorded, so someone else can run it again.
On the sheet
- Seed
- The random seed, where the software allows a fixed one. Where it does not, the sheet says so
- Iterations
- The number of simulation runs
- Software
- The product and its version
- Input file
- SHA-256 of the sealed .xer the simulation was run on
- Risk register
- SHA-256 of the risk inputs: ranges, risks and their links to activities
- Results
- P50 and P90 per key facility, as reported by the run
What it does, and does not, show
- The same software, version, seed, iterations and hashed inputs should give the same result. Where the software cannot fix a seed, a repeat run gives a close result, not the same one.
- A P90 is a statement about the inputs, not a promise about the finish date.
- A seal on the input file shows which file was used. What a seal proves, and what it does not
Terms
Turnaround and fee.
- Turnaround
- Agreed in writing at scoping
- Fee
- Quoted per engagement
A range you can run again at the next gate.
Tell me the decision, the date and the schedule it rests on.
I reply within two working days. How I handle your files.